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Safety and Justice/Consequences 8/Overloaded
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As it turned out, this was a routine underestimation. Even if the aircraft was overweight, the pilots put in the maximum take-off weight in the papers to formally stay (or would appear to stay) within regulations.
The aircraft crashed in the sea. All passengers escaped and survived. The aircraft sank to the bottom of the ocean. The pilot, most likely rendered unconscious because of the impact with the water, was killed.